2018 Box Office Predictions Part 3 (September Through December)

For a couple of years now I've been trying my hand at box office predictions, with mixed results. Sometimes my prognostications are spot on, other times they're wildly inaccurate, proving there's just no telling what the general public is willing to pay to sit through. 

Welp, the Summer Blockbuster Season is definitely over, as this slate of upcoming movies demonstrates—  with gusto! I can't remember when I've seen such an underwhelming schedule of pictures. There's not a single film on this list I'm looking forward to.

Anyway, on to the predictions. As always, my comments on the various films are in red.

NOTE: This list is for the last four months of the year. There're too many movies to cover all in one go.

September

The Nun

In this prequel (uh-oh) to The Conjuring franchise, a young novice and a priest are sent to a monastery to investigate the suicidal death of a nun, who's become a terrifying demon or something. Premieres September 7.

Wow, this is the FIFTH movie in this franchise, which consists of The Conjuring, The Conjuring 2, Annabelle and Annabelle: Creation. 

I liked the Conjuring movies OK, but the spinoffs not so much. That said, they've all performed surprisingly well at the box office, consistently grossing $300 million worldwide (!). I see no reason why this one will be any different. I think it'll make between $120 to $150 million domestically.

Peppermint

A gender-flipped Death Wish clone, starring Jennifer Garner as a woman seeking revenge on the thugs who killed her family. Yawn. Premieres September 7.

Why are we doing another of these revenge movies already? We just had an actual Death Wish remake a few months back, and it absolutely tanked at the box office. That doesn't bode well for this carbon copy of a film. To make things even worse, it's been saddled with a title that suggests a Disney film more than a bloody and violent action movie.

On the other hand, Peppermint's directed by Pierre Morel, who helmed District 13 and Taken. So who knows, it could actually be good. Even so, I doubt it'll gross more than $50 to $60 million in the States.

The Predator

An attempt to "reinvent" the franchise, in which a young boy accidentally triggers a signal that brings a crew of upgraded Predators back to earth. Because nothing goes together better than violent, murderous alien hunters and kids, amirite? Premieres September 14.

The original Predator is a bona fide classic, but each subsequent installment has been an exercise in diminishing returns. I can't see this one breaking the trend. It's directed by Shane Black, of all people, who gave us Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (eh), Iron Man 3 (bleh) and The Nice Guys (OK). The previous film, 2010's Predators, could only manage an anemic $52 million at the box office, and I honestly don't see this one being a hit either. I think it might make $75 to $80 million here.

The House With A Clock In Its Walls

A magical fantasy film based on the book of the same name. Amazingly, this whimsical tale is directed by Eli Roth (!!!), who generally specializes in gore fests like Hostel and The Green Inferno! Strange bedfellows indeed! Premieres September 21.

The trailer looks interesting, but I have serious doubts that Roth can pull off a kids' movie. Stranger things have happened though. I think it'll make $80 to $90 million here.

Assassination Nation

A dark comedy about an entire town whose emails are hacked, exposing all their secrets. Premieres September 14.

The movie's directed by Sam Levinson, whose only previous work was Another Happy Day, which I've never heard of. This thing has "Quirky Indie Film" written all over it, which means it'll have a limited release and few people will go even if it's playing in their town. I'm betting it'll make $20 to $30 million domestically.

Smallfoot

A CGI animated film in which Migo (voiced by Channing Tatum) is a Yeti who tries to prove that legendary creatures known as "Smallfoots" (aka humans) really exist. Premieres September 28.

Haven't heard much buzz about it, but it's from Warner Animation Group, who brought us The Lego Movie and The Lego Batman Movie, both of which were huge box office hits. I wouldn't be surprised if this one grosses at least $300 million worldwide.

Hell Fest

A crazed, costumed slasher begins killing for real at a Halloween Haunted House attraction. The unsuspecting patrons think it's all part of the experience until it's too late. Premieres September 28.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but this is actually a really clever idea for a horror film! I'm surprised no one's done it before. It's directed by Gregory Plotkin, who's sole previous work was Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, so that's not good. On the other hand, it's co-produced by Gale Anne Hurd, who worked on some of the most iconic sci-fi films of all time, including The Terminator, ALIENS, The Abyss, Tremors and Terminator 2: Judgement Day. I'm taking that as a hopeful sign. 

Horror movies are cheap to make, so they almost always perform well at the box office. I expect this one to make around $40 to $50 million here.

October

Venom

Good ol' Sony continues to squeeze every last drop out of their Spider-Man franchise. They're really scraping the bottom of the barrel this time though, as they've made a Spider-Man movie that doesn't have Spider-Man in it. Instead they tapped his lamest villain Venom as the ostensible "hero," in a film that looks like a near carbon copy of this year's Upgrade. Premieres October 5.

I've little or no interest in this film, but I think the general public might flock to it thinking that A. They're gonna see Spider-Man in it and B. It's a Marvel Studios film. Boy, will they be in for a double surprise. 

The previous Spider-Man movie (The Amazing Spider-Man 2) could only manage to gross a disappointing $202 million in the States. I think this one might actually do a bit worse. I'm betting it'll make between $150 to $180 million domestically.

A Star Is Born

A washed-up alcoholic musician, whose career is in a downward spiral, helps a young singer and actress find fame. Stars Bradley Cooper as the older musician, and Lady Gaga (!) as the innocent young ingenue. Premieres October 5.

For the record, this is officially the FOURTH version of A Star Is Born. The original premiered in 1937, was remade in 1954 and again in 1976. Apparently every generation feels the need to retell this story. This one's co-written by star Bradley Cooper and gore-meister Eli Roth, which is a pairing so bizarre I don't even know what to make of it. Cooper also makes his directorial debut here, which could be a huge red flag.

I'm honestly flummoxed here, as this film could go either way. If Book Club can gross $68 million, then anything's possible. I think it'll make between $70 and $80 million domestically.

First Man

A biopic (ugh) starring Ryan Gosling as astronaut Neil Armstrong, the first man to walk on the moon. Premieres October 12.

The trailer looks fine, the cast looks fine, the whole thing looks fine. And therein lies the problem, at least for me— the movie feels average, pedestrian and... fine. It's directed by Damien Chazelle, who previously helmed Guy And Madeline On A Park Bench (?), Whiplash and La La Land. I'm sure he'll do a fine job, and the movie'll gross a perfectly fine $60 to $80 million domestically. 

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

Two young boys open a manuscript owned by R.L. Stine (how meta), which inadvertently releases a host of monsters. Premieres October 12. 

Jesus, not another Sony film! How the hell are they still in business? The first Goosebumps film grossed $80 million domestically, so I would expect this one to do slightly better. Maybe $100 to $120 million.

Halloween

Forty years after the events of the original 1978 Halloween, Laurie Strode comes face-to-face with slasher Michael Myers. Premieres October 19.

Whose bloody brilliant idea was it to call this sequel "Halloween" as well? That won't be the least bit confusing when you're trying to buy or stream it on Amazon! Would it have killed them to call it Halloween: The Return or something like that?

Supposedly this ELEVENTH film in the franchise ignores all previous sequels, and picks up right where the original Halloween left off. That's probably not a bad idea, since few if any of the sequels (with the exception of Halloween 3) have been worth the film they were printed on.

It's produced by John Carpenter, so that's a plus. It's co-written by Danny McBride (!), along with David Gordon Green, who also directed. Green seems an odd choice to helm a slasher pic, as he previously brought us mediocre stoner comedies like Pineapple Express and The Sitter. But he also directed last year's biopic Stronger, so who knows? It could end up being good. 

I just worry that given the movie's timeline, Michael Myers is likely pushing 70 right about now. At this point it's gonna strain credulity if his victims can't get away from him at a brisk walk.

IT grossed a whopping $327 million last fall, but I don't think this one'll do quite that well. I think it might make between $180 to $200 million.

Hunter Killer

A U.S. Navy submarine captain (played by Gerard Butler) teams with Navy Seals to rescue the Russian president, who's been kidnapped by a rogue general. Premieres October 26.

When I saw the trailer I honestly thought it was another Olympus Has Fallen sequel, especially since it stars Butler. Apparently not though, and he's just resigned himself to making the same movie over and over. It's directed by Donovan Marsh, who brought us such classics as Avenged (?). Spud (??) and Dollar$ + White Pipes (???). 

Eh, I dunno about this one. Butler's previous film Geostorm grossed an anemic $33 million here. I get that this film is completely unconnected to that one, but still, I would be very surprised if this one makes over $50 million.

November

Bohemian Rhapsody

Another goddamned biopic, this time about the life of Queen frontman Freddie Mercury. Premieres November 2.

Holy crap, this movie has "disaster" written all over it! Originally Sacha Baron Cohen was set to star as Mercury, which is the most perfect bit of casting I've ever seen. Unfortunately he quit the project due to creative differences with producer and Queen guitarist Brian May, who insisted on sanitizing the sordid details of Mercury's life. 

If that wasn't enough, director Bryan Singer was fired from the film for showing up late (or not at all) and clashing with the cast and crew. Dexter Fletcher was brought in to finish the film, although Singer somehow retains full credit. Fletcher directed such classics as Wild Bill (?), Sunshine On Leith (??) and Eddie The Eagle (???). But hey, at least it's guaranteed to have a killer soundtrack, amirite?

Even though I think the film's doomed, the general popcorn-munching public will be oblivious to all these behind the scenes shenanigans, and will likely flock to it like flies. I think it'll make around $60 to $80 million before word of mouth kills it.

Suspiria

A remake of the 1977 Dario Argento film, in which a young woman attends a dance academy that's a front for a coven of witches. Directed by Luca Guadagnino, who helmed last year's pedo-fest Call Me By Your Name. Premieres November 2.

Unlike the rest of the world, I'm not a fan of the original cult classic. Sure it looked amazing, but I felt the storyline was dull, vague and unfocused (like most Italian horror films!). This remakes looks like more of the same. Despite that, there's a lot of buzz surrounding it and the budget is a paltry $10 million, so it's guaranteed to be a box office hit. I think it'll make $70 to $80 million here, and do much better overseas.

Oh, and the old German man in the movie is totally Tilda Swinton in geriatric drag! Go watch the trailer and you'll see I'm right.

Dr. Seuss' The Grinch

A CGI remake of the beloved Xmas classic, with Benedict Cumberbatch voicing the titular character. Premieres November 9.

It's co-directed by Yarrow Cheney, who gave us The Secret Life Of Pets (shouldn't that be "lives?"), which was a pretty big hit, so this one oughta be a box office hit as well. I'm betting it'll make at least $300 to $350 million here. 

Overlord

In the final days of WWII, a planeload of American soldiers crash land behind German lines. They discover a small base in which Nazi scientists are creating zombie soldiers. Premieres November 9.

This sounds like a really cool premise, and it's produced by JJ Abrams, who, while I'm not a huge fan, has done some decent work in the past.

Unfortunately it appears to be a shot for shot ripoff of the 2013 Dutch film Frankenstein's Army. It's set in the final days of WWII, as a troop of Russian soldiers discover a small base in which Nazi scientists are creating mechanically-augmented soldiers. Sounds a little familiar, eh? I hope Paramount has a good legal team!

It's directed by Julius Avery, who's done pretty much nothing but short films up to now. Abrams' previously produced 10 Cloverfield Lane, which grossed around $72 million here. I would expect Overlord to do about the same. $60 to $80 million. 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindlewald

A sequel to Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them, this installment follows Newt Scamander as he and a young Albus Dumbledore try to thwart the plans of the evil Gellert Grindelwald. Premieres November 16.

I wasn't a huge fan of the previous film, mostly because I can't stand prequels and I'm sort of over the Wizarding World. This one's directed by David Yates, who helmed the earlier film (along with four of the Harry Potter movies), so that's a good sign. It stars Johnny Depp though, who, guilty or not, has been in hot water lately, so that could cost them some ticket sales. 

The previous movie grossed $272 million in the States. I think this one will probably do $275 to $300 million.

Ralph Breaks The Internet

In this sequel to 2013's Wreck-It Ralph, the titular character and his friends are accidentally unleashed onto the world wide web. Wonder if Ralph'll discover internet porn? Premieres November 21.

Never got around to seeing the original, as I don't like sitting in theaters full of screaming, unruly kids. It barely managed to make a profit, grossing an underwhelming $189 million in the U.S. I think it may have become more popular after it was released to home video, so there'll be more interest this time around. I'm betting it'll make $200 to $225 million domestically.

Creed 2

Hooray, sequels! This time around, Adonis Creed struggles to balance his personal life with his training, as his mentor Rocky Balboa mumbles incomprehensible advice. Which is exactly what happened in the previous movie. Premieres November 21.

I thought Creed was much better than it had any right to be, as it was a striped-down story that wisely ignored most of the sub-par sequels. It was directed by Ryan Coogler, who unfortunately isn't returning for his installment. Instead this one's directed by Steven Caple Jr, who's done a whole lot of nothing up to this point.

Creed was a financial hit, as it grossed $173 million worldwide ($109 million domestically) against its tiny $35 million budget. I predict this one might do a little better, grossing maybe $150 to $170 million here.

Robin Hood

Why? Do we really need a new goddamned version of Robin Hood every five years? Premieres November 21.

When I first saw a still of the characters in costume, I honestly thought it was set in the present day. Oddly enough it's not though, as I guess in this version's universe, Robin of Locksley just wears very contemporary looking clothing. 

It's directed by Otto Bathurst, who previously worked strictly in TV. I'm getting a strong King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword odor from this film, and that ain't good. I think it'll be lucky if it makes $40 to $50 million here.

Anna And The Apocalypse

A British Xmas zombie musical, in which a girl named Anna has to save her town of Little Haven from hordes of the undead.Premieres November 30.

The film actually premiered overseas in 2017, and is just now getting U.S. distribution. It's directed by John McPhail, who's done nothing you've ever heard of.

This is obviously an indie film that's getting a wide release, so there's no way in hell it'll be a blockbuster. I would be very surprised if it makes $30 to $40 million. In fact it'll probably be less.

December

Mortal Engines

In a post apocalyptic world of mobile cities that travel the landscape looking for resources, young Hester Shaw seeks revenge on the man who killed her mother. Based on the YA novel by Philip Reeve. Premieres December 14.

The trailer certainly LOOKS good, I'll give it that. The world of the movie seems pretty contrived though, and it looks like a standard "rebels against the establishment" story that's been done a billion times before.

It's written by Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens and Peter Jackson, the team who brought us The Lord Of The Rings trilogy. Fifteen years ago I'd have said that was great news, but they're also the same people who wrote King Kong and The Hobbit films, so... 

It's directed by Christian Rivers, who's worked as a storyboard artist for Peter Jackson for over two decades. This is his directorial debut, which also doesn't fill me with confidence.

The Mortal Engines property isn't anywhere near as well known as Tolkien's works, so I think we'll have another The Lovely Bones situation on our hands. It's gonna gross $80 to $100 million in the States. If that!

Mary Poppins Returns

A sequel to the 1964 classic, which tells the tale of the now adult Michael Banks and his children, who are visited by practically perfect nanny Mary Poppins. Premieres December 19.

The film stars Emily Blunt as Mary and Broadway darling Lin-Manuel Miranda as Diversity, er, I mean Jack. Amazingly, Dick Van Dyke has a cameo role in the film, which could be fun. I couldn't possibly care less about this film, but I have a feeling millions will, and it's gonna be another monster hit for Disney. I think it'll likely make $200 to $250 million here.

Aquaman

For some reason, Warner Bros. hopes it can save its DC Extended Universe by making a goddamned Aquaman movie. Excuse me while I laugh uncontrollably. Premieres December 21.

The film's directed by James Wan, who helmed such pictures as Saw, Insidious and The Conjuring. This of course makes him the perfect choice to direct a superhero film. He also directed Furious 7 though, so I guess he understands how to shoot action.

The trailer's definitely impressive, as it makes it look like the most expensive movie ever made. Sadly, I just don't think the general public cares enough about a C-list character like Aquaman to turn out in droves. Additionally, the film has a $160 million budget, which means it's gonna need to gross $320 million just to break even. Sorry, WB, but that isn't going to happen. 

Justice League only made $229 million domestically, which I find shocking. If DC's version of the Avengers couldn't pull in more than that, there's no way Aquaman will. I think it'll make $120 to $150 million here.

Bumblebee

A prequel (oh god) to the execrable Transformers films. Set in 1987, Bumblebee the friendly Autobot is befriended by a teenage girl named Charlie, because girl power. Premieres December 21.

The fact that the producers included a female character named "Charlie" in a Transformers film because they somehow think that makes a feminist statement makes me want to hunt them down and punch them in the dicks. Or vaginas. Whatever they have.

It's directed by Travis Knight, who previously helmed Kubo And The Two Strings, a movie that wasn't anywhere near as clever or innovative as it thought it was.

The most recent film, Transformers: The Last Knight, was the lowest grossing entry in the franchise, making just $130 million here. This makes me hopeful that the public is FINALLY, at long last, tiring of these terrible, terrible films. I think this one will perform similarly, grossing $120 to $140 million here. 

Holmes & Watson

Will Farrell and John C. Reilly star as the famous detective duo. Premieres December 21.

I am NOT a Will Ferrell fan, but I'd watch John C. Reilly in just about anything. Their previous collaboration, Step Brothers, grossed $100 million in the States, but became something of a cult classic on home video. I don't think those fans are gonna turn out for this one though, and it'll gross $40 to $60 million here.

Alita: Battle Angel

James Cameron's adaptation of the popular manga series FINALLY makes it to the screen. Premieres December 21.

Cameron's been talking about making this film for a good fifteen years now, which is a bad sign. If the director of two of the highest-grossing films ever can't get a movie made, something must be wrong.

There's been all sorts of controversy surrounding the movie, mostly over the decision to render the cybernetic heroine with comically oversized eyes, to better match the source material. It was originally scheduled for a July release, but was moved back to December (possibly to fix the eye situation). As we all know, any time a movie's delayed for any reason, it's a bad, bad sign.

It's directed by Robert Rodriguez, who I'm sure is able to parrot Cameron's orders almost as if they were his own.

Also, the manga's called Battle Angel Alita. What was the point of altering the film title?

From what I've seen in the trailer, the film looks like a near carbon copy of Ghost In The Shell, and we all know how THAT turned out. This definitely ain't gonna be another Avatar, as I think it's gonna underperform and make $60 to $80 million here.