Sunday, May 15, 2016

2016 Movie Box Office Predictions!

I've been busy this week trying to play catch-up, so I'm trying a first here at Bob Canada's BlogWorld— a special guest star. My very own nephew Kyle has stepped in to offer his box office predictions for the major movies coming out for the rest of the year. 

Gosh, where does the time go? Seems like only yesterday he was a wee lad, and now here he is snarkily reviewing films just like his uncle. I've created my very own Frankenstein monster!

Wow, look at all the colons! At least 75% of these films have a colon in the title. Too bad I didn't invest in that colon stock last year when I had the chance. I'd be a millionaire by now!

Anyhoo, take it away, Kyle!

The Angry Birds Movie 
5/13/2016
Kyle: This is about 4 years too late. Nobody plays Angry Birds anymore, and from the trailer the jokes look too adult-themed/vulgar to create any positive word-of-mouth after the opening weekend. The upside is this only cost $75 million to make, so a modest box office could still net the studio a profit.

Bob: Bob of Bob Canada's BlogWorld butting in here. I agree this movie's probably coming too late, but these CGI animated films take years to produce. It's entirely possible they started it when the Angry Birds were still hot. 

The trailer didn't do anything for me either, so I'm betting this will be a moderate hit at best.

Alice Through The Looking Glass
5/27/2016
Kyle" The last Disney Alice in Wonderland movie made a lot of money, but this one worries me a little. It’s borderline too late (6 years after the last installment) and Tim Burton is not returning, instead Disney handed the reigns to the director of the last Muppets movie. However, even a 50% dropoff from the last movie would still net over $500 million.


Bob: Don't forget that the first movie's BILLION dollar gross was worldwide. Here in the States it "only" made $334 million. So it's gonna have an uphill climb to match the success of the original.

The first movie was a very loose adaptation of the two Alice books. That means this one has no blueprint to follow, and is a completely new story. Will audiences be interested in an Alice movie that's 100% new? Is today's average moviegoer even aware there are Alice books?

X-Men: Apocalypse
5/27/2016
Kyle: I’m a little worried about this one. The trailers have been pretty bland and the story is looking pretty generic.


Bob: Looks like a perfectly good waste of Oscar Isaac to me.

We live in interesting times. If you showed this trailer to me in 1980, I would have freaked the hell out, as it would have been the most amazing thing I'd ever seen. Nowadays there've been so many movies just like this that all it generates is a yawn.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows
6/3/2016 
Kyle: Didn’t see the last one. Never been a fan of the ninja turtles. But the turtles are popular again thanks to the new animated series, so it’ll do ok at the box office.

Bob: I saw the first movie on Amazon Prime a few months ago. I didn't love it, but I didn't think it was anywhere near as bad as the critics said it was. I think it'll do OK as well, providing nothing else siphons money from it.

Warcraft
6/10/2016 
Kyle: This will bomb. It’ll be another Jack The Giant-Slayer.

Bob: Hey, I kind of liked Jack The Giant-Slayer

Maybe I just don't travel in the right circles, but I'm not hearing ANY buzz about this film. I think you're right it's going to be an expensive bomb.

Finding Dory
6/17/2016
Kyle: It almost seems like it’s too late to make this sequel, and Pixar has been really hit or miss since Disney moved most of their top people to their in-house animation studio. I think this will make over $800 million but not be as critically successful as Finding Nemo.


Bob: Eh, it's Pixar. At this point they could release a movie of Woody and Buzz reading the phone book for ninety minutes, and it'd gross $800 million.

It's been thirteen years (!) since the first one, but I don't think that'll hurt it. The kids who watch the original six times a day on DVD don't know when it came out, so I think they'll hungrily lap up this new one.

Independence Day: Resurgence
6/24/2016 
Kyle: This will suck, but who cares? It’s Independence Day. The original is terrible, yet also one of the most popular movies ever made. I think this will suffer from Will Smith not being in it a little, but I think this will be a fun movie. Plus, the buzz around this movie finally got fox to release the extended cut of the original on blu-ray, so I owe them a ticket purchase for that.

Bob: ID4 a terrible movie? You're dead to me. It's one of the greatest popcorn flicks ever made!

It's been a whopping TWENTY years since the first one! "Late Sequels" like this rarely work, because the culture and even filming styles change so much in the intervening years. If you make it exactly like the original, it feels too old fashioned. If you make it in the current style, then it doesn't feel enough like the original. There's no way to win.

I agree that the absence of Will Smith will hurt this one (but hey, Brent Spiner's apparently back from the dead!). I think it'll underperform.

The BFG
7/1/2016 
Kyle: This will be the next Adventures of Tin-Tin or Hugo, a good movie that will be neglected by critics and bomb at the box office. This will fly under the radar completely because of the crowded July release slate.

Bob: As someone who played a lot of Doom back in the day, I really, really wish they'd do something about that title…

The Legend of Tarzan
7/1/2016
Kyle: 
Did anyone ask for this? No? Didn’t think so.

Bob: Yep, bomb. Plus I'm having trouble accepting the idea of a Tarzan who wears pants.

I saw the trailer online, but have yet to see it in a theater or on TV. If they want the public to even be aware that this thing exists, they'd better step up their marketing, and fast.

The Purge: Election Year
7/1/2016 
Kyle: The first movie was pretty boring, the sequel was much more exciting but very heavy-handed, I’d like to see this one find a better balance.

Bob: I feel the same way about this series the first one was awful, and the second much better. In fact the second one may have been the best Punisher movie we've had so far.

This may be the movie worst poster I've ever seen. Where's Drew Struzan when we need him? They do understand what purge can also mean, right? It's basically saying, "I Vomited."

I fully expect to see some sort of over-the-top Donald Drumph analogue in this film.

The Secret Life Of Pets
7/8/2016 
Kyle: This looks like a Toy Story rip-off from the trailers. But it’s going to do OK at the box office and bury The BFG in its second weekend.

Bob: As a graphic designer I have to say that's one of the worst logos I've ever seen.

Ghostbusters
7/15/2016 
Kyle: Let’s just pretend this one doesn’t exist, okay? At least we’re getting ecto cooler back because of this.

Bob: By the gods, I'll be glad when this thing finally crashes and burns, er, I mean comes and goes, so I can stop hearing about it forever.

So they didn't even bother to come up with an original poster? It looks like all they did is take the old one, use the "bevel" function in Photoshop to give it a bit of dimension and call it a day. Disappointing.

I think it might do OK in its first week, as curious moviegoers come out to see it. Once word of mouth gets out, it'll have a 110% drop off in its second week. Yeah, I know what I said. 110%.

Ice Age: Collision Course
7/22/2016 
Kyle: They’re still making these?

Bob: Are they in space now? Is the Ice Age franchise no longer set in the Ice Age?

Think about the poor people who spent their childhoods dreaming about becoming an animator, went to film school, worked hard, graduated, got a job at a major studio, and then were assigned to work on this.

Star Trek: Beyond
7/22/2016 
Kyle: Need to see more to be convinced. Hopefully this buries Ghostbusters at the box office and kills its second weekend take.

Bob: I enjoyed the first one, but wanted to burn down the theater after seeing the second. I have zero hope or expectations for this one and hope it bombs so hard it leaves a crater.

The second movie was a weak retread of The Wrath Of Khan. This one looks like the Enterprise is destroyed, just like in The Search For Spock. So I can't wait until the next one, where they'll go back in time and save the whales again.

Jason Bourne
7/29/2016 J
Kyle: Sleeper hit of the summer. $700 million plus.

Bob: I don't know about that... I've seen all these movies, but couldn't tell you what happened in which one if someone held a gun to my head. I think it'll do OK at best.

Suicide Squad
8/5/2016 
Kyle: Keep trying, DC. Keep trying.

Bob: I have little or no interest in this one, but I think if any movie can break the DC movie curse, it'll be this one.

The Magnificent Seven
9/23/2016 
Kyle: Is Hollywood trying to make “modern” westerns still a thing?

Miss Peregrine’s Home For Peculiar Children
9/30/2016 
Kyle: “We’re almost out of Divergent and Maze Runner movies! Quick, find a new franchise!”

Bob: Oh god no, this is a series of books? Did not know that. I don't see any sequels in its future. I feel like the public is over Tim Burton and his fatal doses of whimsy.

The Girl On The Train
10/7/2016 
Kyle: I know next to nothing about this one, it’s based on book from the author of Gone Girl, which was a big hit, and Emily Blunt is staring.

Underworld: Blood Wars
10/14/2016 
Kyle: Are they still doing these?

Bob: Once again, I saw every one of these in the theater, but couldn't tell you anything about any of them if my life depended on it. Something about a busty vampire gal in fetish gear who hates werewolves?

Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween
10/21/2016 
Kyle: This is why the terrorists hate us.

Bob: Heh. Well, I guess we're just not the target audience here. I've got to hand it to Tyler Perry's Tyler Perry, he hasn't let his lack of talent get in the way of his massive success.

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back
10/21/2016
Kyle: Never saw the original. I guess it did well enough to warrant a sequel.


Bob: Eh, the first one was OK. There's not a lot of box office competition in October, so I think this one'll do alright.

Rings
10/28/2016
Kyle: They’re out of Saw movies, I guess someone wants to bring this franchise back from the dead (pun intended).


Bob: Never got the appeal of these movies. Thanks to their anemic PG-13 rating, they're about as terrifying as a basket of kittens.

Doctor Strange
11/4/2016
Kyle: If Marvel can pull of Guardians Of The Galaxy and Ant-Man, they can pull this off. Just hope the whitewashing and the Tibet/Nepal controversy don’t hurt it too much.


Bob: It's Marvel Studios, and at this point they can do no wrong. It'll be another big hit for them

I'm already sick of hearing about the casting. Of course they whitewashed the part of the Ancient One! China has become a HUGE factor in worldwide box office. Films routinely make more there than they do here. There's no way in hell Marvel's going to risk that by bringing up Tibet and pissing off the Sleeping Dragon.

Trolls
11/4/2016
Kyle: Based on the toys. Why God, why!?


Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
11/18/2016
Kyle: After Batman v Superman, if Suicide Squad underperforms, WB NEEDS this to be a big hit to avoid their stock tanking in the 4th quarter.


Bob: Apparently J.K. Rowling doesn't just want money, she wants ALL the money.

The fact that this is an entirely new cast could work against it. Will audiences be interested in a Harry Potter movie without Harry Potter in it?

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
12/16/2016
Kyle: Is it December yet!?


Bob: Gosh, I hope there's a Death Star in this one!

Same deal here as with Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them. Will audiences embrace a Star Wars movie without any familiar characters (Mon Mothma doesn't count)?

Assassin’s Creed
12/21/2016
Kyle: Just saw the trailer today. It looks like a pile of garbage. Video game movies just don’t work.


Bob: I've never played any of the games, so I know absolutely nothing about this franchise. I was gobsmacked to find out that it's set in the future, and the Spanish Inquisition stuff is all part of a Holodeck program. What the hell?

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