Monday, February 26, 2018

2017 Box Office Predictions Part Two RESULTS (May Thru August)

Last year my nephew Kyle and I began a tradition of predicting the year's Box Office Hits and Flops. We didn't do so well in 2016, as Kyle's predictions had a 41% accuracy rate, and mine was even worse at 37%. I guess we vastly underestimated the general moviegoing public's willingness to sit through literally anything.

We decided to try our hands at predicticating again this year, and see if we could do better this time. Below are the results of our 2017 Box Office Predictions Part Two (May thru August)My predictions are in red, while Kyle's are in blue.

Note: I don't want to have to keep saying this over and over, so keep this in mind— due to marketing and other costs, these days a movie has to make around TWICE its PRODUCTION BUDGET in order to break even. So if a movie cost $100 million to film, it's gotta gross $200 million before it actually makes a dime! Crazy, huh?

OK, let's see how we did!

Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2
Bob predicted: No question this will be another major hit for Marvel. The first Guardiansgrossed $773 million worldwide. I would expect this one to do at least $800 million, if not more.

Kyle predicted: $850-900 million easy. One of the biggest hits of the summer.

Budget: $200 million
Domestic Gross: $389,813,101 • Foreign Gross: $473,942,70
Worldwide: $863,755,804 


Wow, we both got it pretty much on the nose! Honestly it's not tough to accurately predict success for a Marvel movie.

Point for each of us!

King Arthur: Legend Of The Sword
Bob predicted: I reeeeeeally wouldn't get my hopes up for five more sequels. The trailer doesn't look bad, but it's got a brutal release date, coming out just a week after Guardians Of The Galaxy. Ouch! I don't see it passing the $100 million mark. I think it'll be lucky if it makes $80 million.

Budget: $175 million
Domestic Gross: $39,175,066 (!) • Foreign Gross: $109,500,000
Worldwide: $148,675,066
Verdict: Money-Losing BOMB!

I knew this movie was gonna flop, but I had no idea it would tank this badly! Less than $40 million in the States! Like I said, America just doesn't seem to like poor Charlie Hunnam!

If you only count the domestic gross, sadly I was all too right. Half a point for me.

Alien: Covenant

Bob predicted: I was NOT a fan of Prometheus, as I thought it was nothing more than a lame stealth remake of ALIENIt made an astonishing $403 million though, proving people will see anything with a title they recognize. I think some viewers will feel burned by Prometheus (HAW!) though, and may skip this one. I'm predicting it'll make around $200 million.

Kyle predicted: 
Box office prediction: I hope it bombs hard enough to end Ridley Scott's career, but not hard enough to delay Alien 5 any further.

Budget: $97 million
Domestic Gross: $74,262,031 • Foreign Gross: $166,483,733
Worldwide: $240,745,764
Verdict: Slight Financial Hit

I predicted "around" $200 million and it made $240 million. Unfortunately Kyle's hatred of Ridley Scott prevented him from actually making a prediction.

Point for me, no point for Kyle.

Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Bob predicted: Ugh, another one of these? The fourth film premiered a whopping six years ago, and only grossed $241 million in the States. However it made an unbelievable $804 MILLION in the rest of the world, for a grand total of over a BILLION DOLLARS!!!

I think it'll be a flop here, grossing less than its $230 million budget, but the worldwide market will save it.

Budget: $230 million
Domestic Gross: $172,558,876 • Foreign Gross: $622,392,918
Worldwide: $794,861,794 
Verdict: Reasonably Successful Financial Hit

I said it'd gross less than its budget, and boy, did it! Over a hundred million less! I think the combination of Johnny Depp's alleged domestic abuse, plus the fact that audiences are just tired of this franchise is what torpedoed this movie. As predicted, the overseas market saved it. 

Point for me!

Wonder Woman
Bob predicted: Batman V. Superman and Suicide Squad made $875 million and $745 million respectively, despite both being steaming piles of hot garbage. So it doesn't matter if Wonder Woman is a good film or not, it'll inexplicably make a crap-ton of money as well. I don't think it'll do quite as well as Suicide Squad though, so I'm gonna say it'll gross around $600 million worldwide.

Budget: $149 million
Domestic Gross: $412,563,408 • Foreign Gross: $409,283,604
Worldwide: $821,847,012 

I was way off here, as I said it'd gross $600 worldwide, and it made over $800 million! I guess I underestimated the number of women who saw the film as some sort of feminist rally cry and tool for social change, rather than a corporate product designed to sell toys.

No point for me.

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
Bob predicted: Kids love the book series, and it's a CGI cartoon, so it's already a hit. If Boss Baby can gross almost $400 million worldwide, I see no reason why this won't do the same or better.

Budget: $38 million
Domestic Gross: $73,921,000 • Foreign Gross: $51,506,681
Worldwide: $125,427,681
Verdict: Financial Hit!

YIKES! I seriously overestimated the popularity of this movie! I said it'd make $400 million worldwide, and it barely cleared a hundred mill! Whoops!

No point for me.

The Mummy
Bob predicted: The trailer didn't do anything for me, as it looked more like another Mission: Impossible movie than a horror film. The film went through three directors, which is never a good sign, and it's produced by Alex Kurtzman and Roberto Orci, the hacks, er, producers who brought the world such fine cinematic achievements as Star Trek Into DarknessNow You See Me 1 2 and Enders Game

As a result of this I have absolutely zero confidence in the film, and no desire to see it whatsoever. Despite this, I think it might gross around $250 million.

Budget: $125 million
Domestic Gross: $80,227,895 • Foreign Gross: $329,003,712
Worldwide: $409,231,607
Verdict: Surprising Financial Hit

HOLEE CRAP! Another big miss. The movie was terrible, so I'm happy to see it fizzled and tanked here in the States. Unfortunately stupid foreigners flocked to the thing for some reason, making it a huge, huge financial success.

No point for me.

It Comes At Night
Bob predicted: There's a lot of buzz about this film, and low budget horror films generally always make a small profit. This comes out the same weekend as The Mummy though, so I have a feeling it's gonna get buried. I think it'll make around $50 million.

Budget: $2.4 million
Domestic Gross: $12,985,117 • Foreign Gross: $5,295,814
Worldwide: $19,280,931
Verdict: Inexplicably Moderate Financial Hit

Whoops! Once again, I wildly overestimated the public's interest in a film. Even though it made less than $20 million worldwide, due to its minute budget it STILL manage to make a profit! There just ain't no justice in the world!

No point for me.

Cars 3
Bob predicted: I wasn't a big fan of Doc Hollywood, er, I mean Cars when it came out, and I didn't even bother seeing the second one. They're not making these movies for me though, so what I think doesn't matter. It's Pixar, so it'll automatically gross at least $350 million.

Budget: $175 million
Domestic Gross: $152,901,115 • Foreign Gross: $230,988,036
Worldwide: $383,889,151
Verdict: Disappointing Financial Flop

Hey, I came pretty close here, as I said it'd make at least $350 million and it came in right around there. That's a far cry though from Toy Story 3, which grossed an astonishing $1,066,969,703! Over a BILLION dollars! I hate to say it, but it's starting to look like the glory days of Pixar may be over.

Point for me!

Transformers: The Last Knight

Bob predicted: Against all logic and reason, these films have always been huge hits— Age Of Extinction grossed over ONE BILLION DOLLARS!!!! I expect no different from this one. I'm gonna predict it'll gross at $800 million at the absolute least.

Budget: $217 million
Domestic Gross: $130,168,683 • Foreign Gross: $475,256,474
Worldwide: $605,425,157
Verdict: Moderate Financial Hit

Woah! Another wrong prediction, as I missed by $200 million! I ain't even mad though, as I hate this franchise with a white hot passion. This is the lowest grossing film in the Transformers series to date, which gives me hope that the public is finally starting to tire of these cinematic turds.

No point for me.

Amityville: The Awakening
Bob predicted: No lie, I've been seeing the trailer for this cinematic turd off and on since 2014. That is not an exaggeration. It must be exceptionally bad if it's been delayed for three years. I smell a bomb.

Budget: $???
Domestic Gross: $742 • Foreign Gross: $7,701,166
Worldwide: $7,701,908
Verdict: No Budget Info, So Impossible To Say

No, that's not a typo— the movie really did gross $742 dollars here in the States. The behind the scenes story is actually more interesting than the actual movie. I really have been seeing the trailer since 2014, and assumed the film would never actually come out. 

Welp, at long last, it was finally released in October of 2017— to a whopping ten theaters in the States. TEN! It made $742 dollars in two weeks (!), before being shipped off to Google Play.

Somehow it managed to rack up almost $8 million overseas. I still can't find any info on the film's budget, so I can't tell if it made a profit or not. I can't imagine it cost more than two or three million to make. If that's true, it probably broke even, but no more.

I said it'd be a bomb, and I think grossing $742 qualifies. Point for me!

Despicable Me 3
Bob predicted: The first film grossed $543 million, while the second made a mind boggling $970 million. Could this one cross the billion dollar mark? I'm gonna say no, as the all-Minions Minions movie may have stolen some of this film's thunder. I predict around $750 - $800 million.

Budget: $80 million
Domestic Gross: $264,624,300 • Foreign Gross: $770,175,109
Worldwide: $1,034,799,409

Oops! Another underestimate on my part. I thought the Minions movie would steal some of this one's thunder, but I couldn't have been more wrong. Amazingly, Despicable Me 3 grossed a whopping BILLION dollars! And it's the third film in the series! I'm stunned. Stupid kids! Quit going to these things!

No point for me.

Spider-Man: Homecoming
Bob predicted: You know the story by now— after the two subpar Andrew Garfield Spider-Man movies, Sony admitted they have no idea what they're doing and asked Marvel Studios to make a new film for them. Fans made a huge deal out of his small cameo in Captain America: Civil War, so there may be some life left in his franchise after all. I'm gonna guess it'll gross around $600 million.

Kyle predicted: Despite this being a Marvel movie on paper, Sony still has some influence on this movie, and that concerns me. 
Needless to say, despite Marvel's involvement, I'm not confident that Spider-Man is in good hands yet. Still, should gross at least $750-800 million.

Budget: $175 million
Domestic Gross: $334,201,140 • Foreign Gross: $545,965,784
Worldwide: $880,166,924
Verdict: Big Financial Hit

Well, it looks like I underestimated again, and by another $200 million. Kyle got it almost right on the nose with his $800 million prediction.

No point for me, but a point for Kyle.

War For The Planet Of The Apes
Bob predicted: Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes grossed an impressive $481 million, while the sequel, Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes nearly doubled that, at $710 million. I'm betting this one will do at least as well or better than Dawn. I predict around $850 million.

Kyle predicted: I really like the last two planet of the apes movies, and I believe that they are some of the best examples of how to do a reboot-sequel-requel-prequel the right way. The last two entries in the series grossed $481 and $710 respectively, I think this one will split the difference, and land somewhere between $550-$625.

Budget: $150 million
Domestic Gross: $148,880,162 • Foreign Gross: $343,784,076
Worldwide: $490,664,238
Verdict: Disappointingly Moderate Financial Hit

Hmm. Looks like we both missed the mark here. This third film in the series suffered a huge drop-off, as it barely managed to gross more than the first film. I'm not surprised, as I honestly found this third installment lacking.

No point for me or Kyle.

Bob predicted: I can't find any info on the film's budget yet, but Nolan reportedly earned a whopping, record-breaking $20 million dollars to direct (!). Nolan's insisting on practical effects again, refurbishing old WWII ships to use in filming. Given all that, I'd expect the budget to be at least $200 million. It's gonna have to be a massive hit just to break even. I think it'll probably make $100 to $150 million here, but be saved by the overseas grosses.

Budget: $100 million
Domestic Gross: $188,373,161 • Foreign Gross: $337,200,000
Worldwide: $525,573,161
Verdict: Reasonably Large Financial Hit

I was pretty darned close. I said it's make around $150 million and be saved by the overseas grosses. And that's pretty much what happened.

Point for me!

Valerian And The City Of A Thousand Planets
Bob predicted: The comic's pretty well known in Europe, but virtually unknown here in the States. It'll definitely do better overseas than it does here. Sadly I think it'll get lost among all the other summer movies— especially Dunkirk, which opens the same weekend— and flop hard here, but be saved by the foreign market. I'm betting it'll gross around $300 million worldwide.

Budget: $177 million
Domestic Gross: $41,189,488 • Foreign Gross: $184,684,740
Worldwide: $225,874,228
Verdict: Disappointing Financial Flop

I like the Valerian comic quite a bit, so it saddens me that the actual film was so muddled and subpar. Sadly, I was right that it would flop hard here. I honestly thought it'd do better overseas though, since the comic is much more well known there. 

I'm gonna give myself a half point here.

The Dark Tower
Bob predicted: I've been a Stephen King fan for decades, but I tried to read the first novel in this series and quickly gave up,. As a result I know little or nothing about the property and have zero attachment to it. From what I've read, the movie takes great liberties with the novel, changing a LOT of elements, which is sure to piss off the hardcore fans. I don't see it being a huge hit, and bet it'll barely break even.

Kyle predicted: 
I’m not sure why this is being made, and I can’t see it being anything other than a massive box office bomb.

Budget: $60 million
Domestic Gross: $50,701,325 • Foreign Gross: $62,473,228
Worldwide: $113,174,553
Verdict: Well Deserved Financial Flop!

Well, our vague pronouncements served us well here. We both said it'd bomb, and that's just what happened. Despite its low $60 million budget, it barely managed to scrape up enough dough to break even. It's no wonder, as the final film was a jumbled mess that only faintly resembled the source material. 

Point for me and Kyle!

The Emoji Movie
Bob predicted: I realize I'm not the target audience for this kind of film, but this looks dreadful. And really, Sony? You're doing "Sh*t Happens" on posters for kid's movies now? Classy!

Sony's had some moderate success with their Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs series, The Smurfs movies and The Hotel Transylvania franchise. I'm gonna say this one will make $400 million at the most.

Budget: $50 million
Domestic Gross: $86,089,513 • Foreign Gross: $131,165,718
Worldwide: $217,255,231
Verdict: Inexplicably Mild Financial Hit

Hmm. Another big miss for me. It managed to turn a profit, but nowhere near the $400 million I predicted. Maybe kids have better taste than I thought.

No point for me.

Blazing Samurai
Apparently this movie either didn't come out when planned or was released direct to video.

Annabelle: Creation
I like The Conjuring movies quite a bit. The Annabelle spinoff, not as much. Now we're getting Annabelle's completely unnecessary origin story, in what has to be a first-- a prequel to a spinoff of a movie in a successful franchise. 
Premieres August 11.

Bob predicted: The first film was a surprise hit, grossing $256 million against its meager $6 million budget. Wow! I would expect this one to be no less successful. I predict it'll make around $300 million.

Budget: $15 million
Domestic Gross: $102,092,201 • Foreign Gross: $204,423,683
Worldwide: $306,515,884

Apparently the film was renamed Annabelle: Creation sometime after I first posted about it. Amazingly I hit it right on the head with my $300 million prediction. That makes it a HUGE financial hit for Warner Bros./New Line, since the budget was a minuscule $15 million.

Point for me!

Another film that was either delayed or not released to theaters.

Same. Either delayed or not released to theaters.

So that's it for our 2017 Box Office Predictions Part Two (May Thru August). Let's see how we did!

Bob: 42% Accuracy Rate

Kyle: 60% Accuracy Rate

Welp, I only managed a 42% rate, which is way down from the 66% I scored in the January through April predictions. I need to hone my predicting skills, stat!

Kyle's prediction ability improved, as he scored 60%, which was a vast improvement over the 20% he got in January through April. Of course it didn't hurt that he only made six predictions!

Stay tuned for our 2017 Box Office Predictions Part One (September through December) results!

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